The International Shipbuilding Forecasting Experts Meeting (ISFEM) 2026, held in Yangzhou on 22-23 April 2026, brought together long-term forecasts for the global shipbuilding market.
The presentation by The Shipbuilders’ Association of Japan uses a 20-year forecast period from 2026 to 2045, divided into four five-year phases. Demand for new ships is assessed in DWT, GT and CGT, using the existing fleet on 1 January 2026 as the reference base.
Solid orders after the market recovery
The Japanese presentation indicates that, after a period of stagnation in new orders until 2020, the market recovered, driven mainly by the container ship segment. Between 2021 and 2024, new orders remained robust, exceeding 10 million gross tons each year.
In 2025, new orders declined by around 20% compared with 2024, reflecting an already substantial orderbook. Bulk carriers remain the dominant segment, with an important share in both deliveries and the orderbook.
Bulk carriers remain the main segment
Japan’s export deliveries in recent years have been around 8-10 million gross tons. Bulk carriers account for approximately 60-70% of deliveries, followed by tankers and container ships.
The orderbook, which had reached a low point in 2020 after several years of weak ordering, has doubled in recent years and now stands at approximately 29 million gross tons. Bulk carriers account for around 60% of this orderbook, while container ships represent around 20%.
The workforce challenge
A key signal for the industry is labour availability. The workforce of SAJ member companies continued to decline until 2022, before recovering to around 42,000 people. The challenge remains how to secure sufficient human resources in an ageing society and amid strong recruitment competition from other industries.
For European and Romanian maritime companies, the message is clear: long-term demand is present, but competitiveness increasingly depends on capacity, specialisation, green technologies and access to skilled labour.
Versiunea in limba romana: ISFEM 2026: prognozele japoneze arata o piata navala robusta, dar cu presiune pe forta de munca